9th Grade GPA and Attendance: Best Predictor of Dropping Out
9th grade
- 75% of 9th grade students with below a 1.0 GPA (D/F average) drop out of high school
- 9th grade students with below a 1.0 GPA are most at risk of being trapped in the pipeline to poverty, incarceration and homelessness
- In the past few years, education researchers have begun to label 9th grade as the “make or break” year for students because more students fail 9th grade than any other grade
- Roughly 25% of 9th graders in U.S. schools will fail to graduate in 4 years
- 9th grade GPA and Attendance are the two most predictive factors for dropping out
- Students who are absent 10 percent of total school days in the 9th grade are 60 percent likely to drop out of school
- On the other hand, a student who earns a 2.5 GPA or above in the 9th grade is 80 percent likely to graduate on time.
- Furthermore, students who earn a 3.0 GPA or above during the 9th grade are 90 percent likely to earn a bachelor’s degree from a 4-year college
Why Do Schools Lose So Many Kids?
- The average public school has 1 counselor for every 500 students.
- It is too easy for a child who does not have the intrinsic motivation or parental support to “fall through the cracks,” fail school, miss class, get suspended, and eventually drop outor be pushed into the school to prison pipeline.
- Students may go days, months, and years of experiencing struggle in Algebra, homelessness, gender confusion, bullying, trauma at home, abuse, the shame of 6 F's, a learning disability that has not been identified, the loss of "Mom" to illness, and the pain of witnessing incarceration of family members WITHOUT anyone knowing
- As a result of feeling ignored, neglected, overlooked, and disengaged, thousands of students across schools in America drop out of school and many of them fall into the vicious cycle of crime, viole➢ nce, and incarceration.
- Mathematics, especially algebra, is the most failed class by high school dropouts
Could these Dropouts Have Been Saved? Yes
- Over 70 percent of drop outs “silently” quit school due to a history of poor attendance, low engagement in the classroom, and failing grades (1.0 GPA) that could have been identified years earlier in the 9th grade by a caring mentor
- According to a report by the Gates Foundation, over 70 percent of dropouts feel that they would have graduated from school if they had received more support during school
- Gates Foundation concluded that the number one solution for dropout crisis is to create "early warning systems" for at-risk students where all students have an adult advocate
PUSHOUTS
Pushouts: Students “Pushed Out” of School into Prison
- Many so-called “dropouts” are actually “Push-outs” because the system pushed them out by simply failing to provide them with the academic intervention, holistic support, and nurturing learning environment needed for the child to thrive.
- Under zero tolerance, students, especially of color, are often suspended or expelled as a first response rather than a last resort. Thus they are as Dr. Victor Rios says, “Pushouts.”
- While black and Latino youth represent only 30% of the U.S. juvenile population, black and Latino youth represent 70% of students arrested or expelled from U.S. schools.
- Students who have been suspended or expelled are twice as likely to drop out and three times more likely to be arrested than peers who have not been suspended
- Instead of steering these students away from prison, current school discipline practices ensure that disproportionate numbers of students of color are trapped within the school- to-prison pipeline
- 70% of prison consists of people of color, primarily black and Latino.
- The majority of teens, especially of color, in the juvenile justice system engaged in non- violent crimes such as truancy or disruptive behavior.
- A recent report by Stanford Graduate School of Education concluded, "Kids are being yanked out of school for what would be called mischief in wealthy communities and sent to jail.” For most youth, jail is the beginning of the end of any hope for a productive life.
Pushouts: We Have No School For Us
- Many students who are pushed out of the public high school have nowhere else to go to.
- While there may be a local charter school, not every “Pushout” student has the intrinsic motivation or parental support required to enroll and succeed at the charter school
- The local charter school may have limited space and will thus attract those parents and students who are highly motivated and have the support at home that is needed to succeed
- Many “Pushouts” lack the parental support, foundational skills, or intrinsic drive needed to enroll in a charter school
- Therefore, there is no school system available to meet the academic and socio-emotional needs of the “Pushouts.”
We cannot wait until 4,000 9th grade “Pushouts” in Sacramento drop out of school and fall into the pipeline from school to crime, incarceration, poverty, homelessness, lower life expectancy, and cost the society billions of dollars in lost wages and health care expenses
Thank you to our sponsors!
